Who Will Win The Grand National?

The Grand National is often one of the most unpredictable horse races in the world, but the question on everyone’s mind is: Who will win the Grand National? As race day at Aintree approaches, we delve into past trends, key statistics, and standout contenders to help you find the winner of the 2025 National.

Does Experience Matter?

Historically, experience in the Grand National isn’t a decisive factor. In fact, 23 of the last 29 winners were making their debut in the race. While horses that have previously placed in the National can sometimes struggle to improve their performance, there have been exceptions. Amberleigh House, for example, managed to find the extra edge needed to secure victory. However, Tiger Roll remains a rare example of a horse that defended his title successfully, joining the legendary Red Rum.

That being said, last year’s winner, I Am Maximus, is not without a chance of becoming a multiple winner. He won convincingly last time but now faces an increased weight challenge of 11st 12lb. History suggests that defending champions struggle, but exceptions exist, and he may yet defy the odds. Who will win the Grand National? Could it be him?

The Weight Factor

Grand National Weights have traditionally been a crucial factor in the race. It was once considered near-impossible for a horse to win carrying more than 11st, but in recent years, this has changed. Hedgehunter broke the trend in 2005, followed by winners such as Don’t Push It, Neptunes Collonges, Many Clouds, and Tiger Roll, all carrying significant weight.

However, top weight remains a major disadvantage. The last horse to carry number-one cloth to victory was Red Rum in 1974. Since then, few have even managed a top-four finish under such conditions. This makes I Am Maximus’s task even more challenging. If history is anything to go by, the winner may come from a more moderately weighted contender.

Does Cheltenham Form Matter?

Many punters look to the Cheltenham Festival for clues on how to bet on the Grand National, but this can be misleading. While six of the last ten Grand National winners ran at Cheltenham, backing a horse purely on their festival performance is risky. Tiger Roll twice won the Glenfarclas Chase before winning the National, but other Cheltenham victors rarely follow up with an Aintree triumph.

One horse attracting attention is Stumptown, who won the Glenfarclas Chase this year. However, history suggests this form may not translate to Grand National glory. So, who will win the Grand National? If trends hold, the winner is likely to be a horse that skipped Cheltenham and has been carefully primed for this race.

The Importance of Big-Race Form

Form in major handicaps has often been a good guide. Horses that have performed well in high-profile staying chases tend to do well at Aintree. Many Clouds, Comply Or Die, and One For Arthur are just some of the winners who had landed significant handicaps before their Grand National success. The Irish Grand National and Welsh Grand National are particularly strong indicators.

Looking at this year’s contenders, Intense Raffles fits the bill perfectly. Having won last year’s Irish Grand National, he has been aimed at Aintree for some time. He carries a competitive weight of 10st 10lb and looks primed for a big run.

Can a Hurdles Run Be a Clue?

Interestingly, a hurdles run earlier in the season can be a strong hint that a horse has been protected for the Grand National. Several past winners, including Don’t Push It and Ballabriggs, followed this pattern. Horses that have spent part of the season over hurdles tend to be well-handicapped and prepared specifically for Aintree’s test of endurance.

The Verdict – Who Will Win The Grand National?

With so many factors to consider, who will win the Grand National? I Am Maximus has the class but carries a tough weight. Stumptown has festival form but may struggle to replicate it. Intense Raffles, an Irish Grand National winner, looks like an ideal fit based on key trends. He is a strong contender, despite being a seven-year-old, as younger horses are beginning to have more impact in this evolving race.

Among the British challengers, Kandoo Kid is another name to watch. His victory at Newbury in November came in a traditionally strong trial for this race. With a competitive weight and good preparation, he could provide a home victory.

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As the excitement builds towards the big race, one thing is certain – who will win the Grand National? remains the big question asked by punters around the world on Saturday. With history, trends, and key stats in mind, punters have plenty to consider before making their final pick.