Could YR4 Hit The Moon?

Could YR4 hit the Moon? That’s the question on the minds of astronomers and space enthusiasts around the world after NASA’s latest updates about asteroid 2024 YR4. Once thought to be on a potential collision course with Earth, the asteroid’s trajectory has since shifted, now suggesting a greater likelihood of impacting the Moon sometime in 2032. Here’s what we know so far—and why it matters.

What Is Asteroid 2024 YR4?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object (NEO) first spotted in late 2024. At the time of its discovery, scientists estimated it to be anywhere from 40 to 90 meters (131 to 295 feet) across. More refined observations now place its size between 53 and 67 meters—roughly equivalent to a 15-story building.

NEOs like YR4 frequently pass near our planet, but very few come close enough to cause serious concern. YR4 initially triggered global interest due to early predictions that gave it a small chance—around 3%—of impacting Earth in December 2032.

From Earth Hazard to Lunar Threat

From city-killer to moon basher! YR4’s chances of hitting Earth are no longer anything to worry about. However, you may wish to put your vacation to the Moon on hold in 2032.

How Did the Risk Change?

Earlier predictions made by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies suggested YR4 might pose a threat to Earth, prompting serious monitoring. But with improved tracking data from the James Webb Space Telescope and multiple ground-based observatories, NASA revised its estimates in early 2025. As of now, the risk of an Earth impact has dropped to “near-zero.”

Rising Odds for the Moon

While Earth is no longer in danger, NASA has now revised the asteroid’s chance of impacting the Moon. In late February, the odds stood at 1.7%. As of April, those chances have risen to 3.8%. Though still low, this percentage is significant in astronomical terms, especially when considering the Moon’s relatively small target size.

What Would Happen if YR4 Hit the Moon?

We could be in for a heck of a show from Earth if YR4 does hit the moon. But what should we expect from a lunar impact?

Not a Catastrophe—But Still a Big Deal

A collision with the Moon wouldn’t be disastrous in the way an Earth impact might be, but it would still be noteworthy. At over 50 meters wide, YR4 could create a crater several hundred meters in diameter. However, NASA has emphasized that such an impact would not alter the Moon’s orbit or present any direct danger to Earth.

A Scientific Opportunity

Ironically, some scientists are hopeful that the asteroid does hit the Moon. A controlled or observed impact would offer a rare opportunity to study crater formation, ejecta dispersal, and the dynamics of lunar impacts in real time. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, called the potential impact “valuable for planetary defense purposes.”

The Role of James Webb and Future Telescopes

As of mid-April 2025, YR4 will be too far and faint to observe using ground-based telescopes. However, NASA plans to continue tracking it using the James Webb Space Telescope. The next window for Webb to observe the asteroid will open in May 2025, with another observation opportunity expected in early 2026.

These observations are crucial to refining the asteroid’s trajectory. Even a 1% chance of impact for an object this size is enough to justify continued monitoring and, potentially, the planning of deflection strategies.

Could We Deflect YR4 if Needed?

While there is no need for action at this point, the case of 2024 YR4 is a textbook example of why planetary defense strategies are so important. If the odds of impact with Earth were higher, NASA and other space agencies might consider deploying a deflection mission. Technologies like kinetic impactors or gravity tractors are already being explored as part of global asteroid defense efforts.

The DART mission, which successfully altered the path of asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, proved that such strategies can work on small space rocks. Lessons from YR4 could inform future missions and emergency protocols.

What Are the YR4 Odds?

It’s easy to dismiss a 3.8% impact probability as trivial, but in astronomical terms, that’s a fairly notable number. For comparison, most known near-Earth asteroids have impact probabilities far below 1%.

Still, it’s important to keep the risk in perspective. NASA maintains that there’s still over a 96% chance that YR4 will miss the Moon entirely. These odds could shift again, but nothing currently indicates a high-likelihood event.

Should We Be Worried?

Could YR4 hit the Moon? Yes—it’s a real possibility, but not a reason for panic. Whether it collides or passes harmlessly by, asteroid 2024 YR4 is serving as an excellent case study in planetary monitoring and space preparedness.

Rather than causing fear, events like this underline the importance of continued investment in space observation and defense technologies. After all, the more we know about objects like YR4, the better prepared we’ll be for any that come our way.

And who knows—if the asteroid does hit the Moon, we might learn more from the impact than from any near miss.